17 Sept · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1607
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stibor
LV
🇺🇦Lukas Veigl
ELO 1580
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Veigl🌟Veigl covers set handicap as underdog 69% (61)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.