18 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1519
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mukhin
VK
🇺🇦Vitalii Korniichuk
ELO 1516
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Korniichuk stays under total as underdog 63% (38)
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.