18 Sept · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Kurylenko
ELO 1485
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maliuk
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1501
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H34-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.