22 Sept · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1611
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zelinka
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1655
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dobias🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (80)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H26-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)