22 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇺🇦Antonin Skyba
ELO 1344
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
PM
🇺🇦Patrik Muller
ELO 1356
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.