22 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1559
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rulc
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1517
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Rulc rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (133)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H58-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.