22 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1525
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Maliuk
DK
🇺🇦Dmitro Kuzmenko
ELO 1495
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H29-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.