22 Sept · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1437
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jnr
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1446
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorel
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.