22 Sept · 11:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1635
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rak
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1652
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 66% (205)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H87-63
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.