22 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇺🇦Patrik Muller
ELO 1356
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
JV
🇺🇦Jan Vrnak
ELO 1343
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.