22 Sept · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1724
FormLWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pesternikov
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1652
FormLWLLW
58%
42%
🌟Rak stays under total as underdog 65% (119)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H90-55
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (90-55)