22 Sept · 11:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1584
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adam
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1537
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 69% (267)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H22-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-15)