22 Sept · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1635
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pesternikov
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1724
FormLWWLL
41%
59%
🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 66% (205)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H115-98
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (115-98)