22 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1535
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ziakun
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1525
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maliuk🌟Maliuk covers set handicap as underdog 66% (149)
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H30-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.