22 Sept · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1438
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Semenets
DK
🇺🇦Denys Khavanskyi
ELO 1405
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H17-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.