22 Sept · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1438
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Semenets
VV
🇺🇦Volodymyr Varchenko
ELO 1387
FormWLLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)