22 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1438
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Semenets
SO
🇺🇦Sergey Osipov
ELO 1433
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Osipov stays under total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.