22 Sept · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1438
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Semenets
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Hovorunets
ELO 1432
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H36-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.