24 Sept · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YS
🇺🇦Yuriy Shcherbak
ELO 1371
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fokin
IF
🇺🇦Illia Fokin
ELO 1401
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Fokin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H17-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.