24 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Michal Snizek
ELO 1457
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Snizek
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1452
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Puk🌟Puk covers set handicap as underdog 66% (73)
Fair odds · Snizek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.68· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.