25 Sept · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1461
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dunas
MD
🇺🇦Mykhailo Dunas
ELO 1465
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Oliynyk stays under total as underdog 63% (49)
Fair odds · Dunas
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.