25 Sept · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1499
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Holub
DS
🇺🇦David Sabuka
ELO 1410
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H10-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-3)