25 Sept · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1542
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1577
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Potapov🌟Storozhenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (249)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H21-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.