27 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VB
🇺🇦Vitalii Boyko
ELO 1393
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1408
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H10-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.