27 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1564
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolman
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1542
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Provaznik🌟Provaznik covers set handicap as underdog 69% (84)
Fair odds · Kolman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H4-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.