27 Sept · 08:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1528
FormLLWLW
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Kotyk
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1408
FormWLWLL
63%
37%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (209)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~73 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
1-3
14%
Elo Gap+120
H2H9-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+120)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-3)