27 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Matej Kovarik
ELO 1545
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1567
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovarik
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.