27 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1658
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zelinka
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1623
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kocvara🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (89)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.