27 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇺🇦Miroslav Hajek
ELO 1571
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hajek
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1542
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Provaznik🌟Provaznik covers set handicap as underdog 69% (84)
Fair odds · Hajek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H24-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.