28 Sept · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1471
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oliynyk
MD
🇺🇦Mykhailo Dunas
ELO 1444
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Oliynyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.