28 Sept · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1567
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1630
FormWLWLL
43%
57%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (95)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~73 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H40-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-11)