28 Sept · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YP
🇺🇦Yurii Parahailo
ELO 1533
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vorsuliak
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1538
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Vorsuliak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H43-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.