28 Sept · 15:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇺🇦Ihor Dubinin
ELO 1505
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Simchuk
VS
🇺🇦Viacheslav Simchuk
ELO 1580
FormLWWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Simchuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)