28 Sept · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sorochan
ELO 1485
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zvolynskyi
YZ
🇺🇦Yurii Zvolynskyi
ELO 1496
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Zvolynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H28-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.