4 Oct · 07:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1426
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1497
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~73 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H23-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-6)