4 Oct · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1546
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jnr
TK
🇺🇦Tomas Kanka
ELO 1516
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~71 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.