7 Oct · 00:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1447
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smyrnov
VV
🇺🇦Valerii Vlasenko
ELO 1434
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vlasenko🌟Vlasenko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (301)
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H59-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.