6 Oct · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Moshovskyi
ELO 1492
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Potapov
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1547
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)