8 Oct · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Orest Melnik
ELO 1496
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dunas
MD
🇺🇦Mykhailo Dunas
ELO 1528
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Dunas
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.