19 Oct · 07:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1619
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1639
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Kovshun covers set handicap as underdog 62% (143)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H29-77
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.