19 Oct · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TS
🇺🇦Tomas Stejskal
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sabuka
DS
🇺🇦David Sabuka
ELO 1517
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stejskal
Fair odds · Sabuka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H2-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)