19 Oct · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1550
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1613
FormWWWLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Storozhenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (304)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H25-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-20)