19 Oct · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anatoliy Lysyi
ELO 1374
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lysyi
OB
🇺🇦Oleksandr Badanin
ELO 1340
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
🌟Badanin covers set handicap as underdog 66% (35)
Fair odds · Lysyi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H12-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.