19 Oct · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kyienko
ELO 1572
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kyienko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1505
FormWLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpenko🌟Kyienko goes over total as favourite 76% (17)
Fair odds · Kyienko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)