19 Oct · 07:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Kaderabek
ELO 1560
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kaderabek
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1470
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 67% (309)
Fair odds · Kaderabek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H33-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-29)