19 Oct · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1453
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Treschetka
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1426
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🌟Oliynyk stays under total as underdog 63% (60)
Fair odds · Treschetka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H2-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.