19 Oct · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Volodymyr Melnykov
ELO 1477
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stetsenko
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1530
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H13-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-9)