19 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1453
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hel
VH
🇺🇦Valerii Hel
ELO 1471
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Treschetka🌟Hel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (104)
Fair odds · Hel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.