22 Oct · 19:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Valerii Merzlikin
ELO 1500
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Merzlikin
AZ
🇺🇦Artem Zozulia
ELO 1458
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zozulia🌟Zozulia stays under total as underdog 67% (48)
Fair odds · Merzlikin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.