22 Oct · 19:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇺🇦Maksym Deineha
ELO 1559
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Deineha
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1544
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zhyrnov
Fair odds · Deineha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.